The Impact of Climate Change on Water Security in The Agroecological Zone of The Sudd Wetland, Jonglei State-South Sudan.

Abstract

Climate change posed a significant global challenge, characterized by long-term alterations in climate patterns. This study evaluated the impact of climate change on water security in the Sudd region, with a focus on Jonglei State, South Sudan. Utilizing historical and projected climate data, including the SSP1-1.9 and SSP3-7.0 scenarios, the study examined temperature and precipitation trends, highlighting substantial changes over several decades. The results revealed an upward warming trends and erratic rainfall patterns, represented by the regression equation y = 0.1126x+29.292, and y = 6.1977x+159.45 for the historical climate data from 1901 to 2020, respectively (figure 3.3). Annual and 5-year average temperature trends analysis from 1951 to 2020 revealed annual increase of approximately 0.0315°C, totalling around 0.1575°C over five years (figure 3.2 (a)). Climate projections indicated continued warming, with mean temperature increases ranging from 0.5°C to 0.67°C for the period 2020-2039, rising to 0.77°C to 0.95°C by 2040-2059 under the SSP1-1.9 scenario, and 1.21°C to 1.51°C under SSP3-7.0. Rainfall patterns exhibited moderate uncertainty; however, positive correlations were observed in both scenarios. Approximately more than 80% of rural households in the Sudd region depended on rain-fed agriculture, with future projections suggesting potential yield reductions of up to 50%. This underscores the vulnerability of local communities, particularly women, who face disproportionate impacts due to socioeconomic factors. The findings emphasize the need for Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) to enhance resilience against climate variability. The study advocates for robust policies and multi-stakeholder coordination to address the interconnected challenges of water security and socioeconomic stability. Ultimately, the study offers actionable recommendations to improve resilience and promote long-term stability in the Sudd region.